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During a recent interview, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, reiterated his perspective that a U.S. recession remains a probable outcome, assigning a likelihood of 35% to 40% for a gentle economic downturn. This reflects his consistent stance since February, where he expressed skepticism about the overly positive market sentiment regarding recession risks.
In his dialogue with CNBC’s Leslie Picker, Dimon emphasized that his evaluation remains unchanged, highlighting ongoing global and domestic challenges that could impact economic stability. These include geopolitical tensions, real estate market fluctuations, government deficits, and policy actions like quantitative tightening and upcoming elections—all factors contributing to market unease.
Despite a turbulent economic forecast in 2022, where Dimon cautioned about an impending economic “hurricane,” the U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience, performing better than he anticipated. Currently, the rise in credit card defaults signals potential troubles, yet Dimon confirmed that the nation is not presently in a recession.
Expressing cautious optimism, Dimon voiced concerns about the Federal Reserve’s ability to achieve a 2% inflation target, especially with impending expenditures in the green sector and defense. He acknowledged the broad spectrum of possible outcomes, maintaining an overall positive outlook that the U.S. could weather a mild or even sharp recession without catastrophic impacts, though he expressed empathy for those who might face unemployment in such scenarios.
Dimon concluded with a note on the resilience of the American economy, emphasizing the need to prepare for various possible economic conditions while hoping for minimal hardship for those affected directly by economic downturns.
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